Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 18.535430 22.384521 26.630415 31.634366 37.342286 43.622236 51.024991
2025-09-07 13.083301 18.136594 24.292730 32.223042 42.038834 53.658290 68.310864
2025-09-14 9.532659 14.845037 21.865278 31.559995 44.316538 60.235109 81.275446
2025-09-21 7.658622 13.172689 20.970233 32.355882 48.065334 68.464198 96.375714
2025-09-28 5.667890 10.838649 18.685005 30.802852 48.315860 71.935834 105.317295
2025-10-05 4.813766 10.039131 18.428247 31.959973 52.213485 80.307347 120.957399
2025-10-12 4.064572 9.236088 18.005013 32.741701 55.524120 87.942018 135.848632
2025-10-19 3.431593 8.490737 17.536972 33.342310 58.522403 95.197402 150.437827
2025-10-26 2.952429 7.924936 17.269909 34.188435 61.879773 103.054298 166.116223
2025-11-02 2.392024 7.053891 16.321930 33.772747 63.183249 107.890054 177.581473
2025-11-09 2.003237 6.454762 15.775119 33.954627 65.394986 114.115408 191.228687
2025-11-16 1.632090 5.792380 14.997184 33.622704 66.696947 118.954691 202.936565
2025-11-23 1.227765 4.943223 13.760276 32.429016 66.658736 122.012431 212.587176
2025-11-30 1.026162 4.581967 13.504460 33.073037 69.838193 130.338105 230.669580
2025-12-07 0.784616 3.997331 12.634949 32.399341 70.619861 134.810475 242.928815
2025-12-14 0.663669 3.753978 12.515551 33.211836 74.096098 143.789347 262.502012
2025-12-21 0.467887 3.129727 11.322787 31.626726 73.020525 145.133647 269.984556
2025-12-28 0.406926 3.009996 11.412693 32.807793 77.196730 155.457017 292.158130
2026-01-04 0.343215 2.841952 11.337601 33.605590 80.668893 164.690133 312.818121
2026-01-11 0.284852 2.661831 11.191409 34.218486 83.801158 173.433289 332.909631
2026-01-18 0.241140 2.528657 11.156710 35.081838 87.465045 183.217285 354.969781
2026-01-25 0.181694 2.250099 10.611456 34.657699 88.499078 188.382454 369.477647
2026-02-01 0.143512 2.067652 10.330420 34.843280 90.773144 195.816569 387.966311